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Abstract PremiseThe Aptian–Albian (121.4–100.5 Ma) was a greenhouse period with global temperatures estimated as 10–15°C warmer than pre‐industrial conditions, so it is surprising that the most reliable CO₂estimates from this time are <1400 ppm. This low CO₂during a warm period implies a very high Earth‐system sensitivity in the range of 6 to 9°C per CO₂doubling between the Aptian‐Albian and today. MethodsWe applied a well‐vetted paleo‐CO₂proxy based on leaf gas‐exchange principles (Franks model) to twoPseudotorelliaspecies from three stratigraphically similar samples at the Tevshiin Govi lignite mine in central Mongolia (~119.7–100.5 Ma). ResultsOur median estimated CO₂concentration from the three respective samples was 2132, 2405, and 2770 ppm. The primary reason for the high estimated CO₂but with relatively large uncertainties is the very low stomatal density in both species, where small variations propagate to large changes in estimated CO₂. Indeed, we found that at least 15 leaves are required before the aggregate estimated CO₂approaches that of the full data set. ConclusionsOur three CO₂estimates all exceeded 2000 ppm, translating to an Earth‐system sensitivity (~3–5°C/CO₂doubling) that is more in keeping with the current understanding of the long‐term climate system. Because of our large sample size, the directly measured inputs did not contribute much to the overall uncertainty in estimated CO₂; instead, the inferred inputs were responsible for most of the overall uncertainty and thus should be scrutinized for their value choices. 

The geological record encodes the relationship between climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) over long and short timescales, as well as potential drivers of evolutionary transitions. However, reconstructing CO₂beyond direct measurements requires the use of paleoproxies and herein lies the challenge, as proxies differ in their assumptions, degree of understanding, and even reconstructed values. In this study, we critically evaluated, categorized, and integrated available proxies to create a high-fidelity and transparently constructed atmospheric CO₂record spanning the past 66 million years. This newly constructed record provides clearer evidence for higher Earth system sensitivity in the past and for the role of CO₂thresholds in biological and cryosphere evolution. 

A variety of proxies have been developed to reconstruct paleo‐CO₂from fossil leaves. These proxies rely on some combination of stomatal morphology, leafδ¹³C, and leaf gas exchange. A common conceptual framework for evaluating these proxies is lacking, which has hampered efforts for inter‐comparison. Here we develop such a framework, based on the underlying physics and biochemistry. From this conceptual framework, we find that the more extensively parameterised proxies, such as the optimisation model, are likely to be the most robust. The simpler proxies, such as the stomatal ratio model, tend to under‐predict CO₂, especially in warm (>15^°C) and moist (>50%humidity) environments. This identification of a structural under‐prediction may help to explain the common observation that the simpler proxies often produce estimates of paleo‐CO₂that are lower than those from the more complex proxies and other, non‐leaf‐based CO₂proxies. The use of extensively parameterised models is not always possible, depending on the preservation state of the fossils and the state of knowledge about the fossil's nearest living relative. With this caveat in mind, our analysis highlights the value of using the most complex leaf‐based model as possible. 

Abstract Throughout the Phanerozoic, estimated CO₂levels from CO₂proxies generally correlate well with independent estimates of temperature. However, some proxy estimates of atmospheric CO₂during the Late Cretaceous and early Paleocene are low (<400 ppm), seemingly at odds with elevated sea surface temperature. Here we evaluate early Paleocene CO₂by applying a leaf gas‐exchange model toPlatanitesleaves of four early Paleocene localities from the San Juan Basin, New Mexico (65.66–64.59 Ma). We first calibrate the model on two modernPlatanusspecies,Platanus occidentalisandP. × acerifolia, where we find the leaf gas‐exchange model accurately predicts present‐day CO₂, with a mean error rate between 5% and 14%. Applying the model to the early Paleocene, we find CO₂varies between ∼660 and 1,140 ppm. These estimates are consistent with more recent CO₂estimates from boron, leaf gas‐exchange, liverwort, and paleosol proxies that all suggest moderate to elevated levels of CO₂during the Late Cretaceous and early Paleocene. These levels of atmospheric CO₂are more in keeping with the elevated temperature during this period.